Dynamics of emotion trends in Canadian Twitter users during COVID-19 confinement in relation to caseloads: Artificial intelligence-based emotion detection approach.

Multiple waves of COVID-19 have significantly impacted the emotional well-being of all, but many were subject to additional risks associated with forced regulations. The objective of this research was to assess the immediate emotional impact, expressed by Canadian Twitter users, and to estimate the linear relationship, with the vicissitudes of COVID caseloads, using ARIMA time-series regression. We developed two Artificial Intelligence-based algorithms to extract tweets using 18 semantic terms related to social confinement and locked down and then geocoded them to tag Canadian provinces. Tweets (n = 64,732) were classified as positive, negative, and neutral sentiments using a word-based Emotion Lexicon. Our results indicated: that Tweeters were expressing a higher daily percentage of negative sentiments representing, negative anticipation (30.1%), fear (28.1%), and anger (25.3%), than positive sentiments comprising positive anticipation (43.7%), trust (41.4%), and joy (14.9%), and neutral sentiments with mostly no emotions, when hash-tagged social confinement and locked down. In most provinces, negative sentiments took on average two to three days after caseloads increase to emerge, whereas positive sentiments took a slightly longer period of six to seven days to submerge. As daily caseloads increase, negative sentiment percentage increases in Manitoba (by 68% for 100 caseloads increase) and Atlantic Canada (by 89% with 100 caseloads increase) in wave 1(with 30% variations explained), while other provinces showed resilience. The opposite was noted in the positive sentiments. The daily percentage of emotional expression variations explained by daily caseloads in wave one were 30% for negative, 42% for neutral, and 2.1% for positive indicating that the emotional impact is multifactorial. These provincial-level impact differences with varying latency periods should be considered when planning geographically targeted, time-sensitive, confinement-related psychological health promotion efforts. Artificial Intelligence-based Geo-coded sentiment analysis of Twitter data opens possibilities for targeted rapid emotion sentiment detection opportunities.

COVID-19 Pandemic: Identifying Key Issues Using Social Media and Natural Language Processing.

The COVID-19 pandemic has affected people's lives in many ways. Social media data can reveal public perceptions and experience with respect to the pandemic, and also reveal factors that hamper or support efforts to curb global spread of the disease. In this paper, we analyzed COVID-19-related comments collected from six social media platforms using natural language processing (NLP) techniques. We identified relevant opinionated keyphrases and their respective sentiment polarity (negative or positive) from over 1 million randomly selected comments, and then categorized them into broader themes using thematic analysis. Our results uncover 34 negative themes out of which 17 are economic, socio-political, educational, and political issues. Twenty (20) positive themes were also identified. We discuss the negative issues and suggest interventions to tackle them based on the positive themes and research evidence.

Pay Attention to Evolution: Time Series Forecasting with Deep Graph-Evolution Learning.

Time-series forecasting is one of the most active research topics in artificial intelligence. A still open gap in that literature is that statistical and ensemble learning approaches systematically present lower predictive performance than deep learning methods. They generally disregard the data sequence aspect entangled with multivariate data represented in more than one time series. Conversely, this work presents a novel neural network architecture for time-series forecasting that combines the power of graph evolution with deep recurrent learning on distinct data distributions; we named our method Recurrent Graph Evolution Neural Network (ReGENN). The idea is to infer multiple multivariate relationships between co-occurring time-series by assuming that the temporal data depends not only on inner variables and intra-temporal relationships (i.e., observations from itself) but also on outer variables and inter-temporal relationships (i.e., observations from other-selves). An extensive set of experiments was conducted comparing ReGENN with dozens of ensemble methods and classical statistical ones, showing sound improvement of up to 64.87% over the competing algorithms. Furthermore, we present an analysis of the intermediate weights arising from ReGENN, showing that by looking at inter and intra-temporal relationships simultaneously, time-series forecasting is majorly improved if paying attention to how multiple multivariate data synchronously evolve.

Give more data, awareness and control to individual citizens, and they will help COVID-19 containment.

The rapid dynamics of COVID-19 calls for quick and effective tracking of virus transmission chains and early detection of outbreaks, especially in the "phase 2" of the pandemic, when lockdown and other restriction measures are progressively withdrawn, in order to avoid or minimize contagion resurgence. For this purpose, contact-tracing apps are being proposed for large scale adoption by many countries. A centralized approach, where data sensed by the app are all sent to a nation-wide server, raises concerns about citizens' privacy and needlessly strong digital surveillance, thus alerting us to the need to minimize personal data collection and avoiding location tracking. We advocate the conceptual advantage of a decentralized approach, where both contact and location data are collected exclusively in individual citizens' "personal data stores", to be shared separately and selectively (e.g., with a backend system, but possibly also with other citizens), voluntarily, only when the citizen has tested positive for COVID-19, and with a privacy preserving level of granularity. This approach better protects the personal sphere of citizens and affords multiple benefits: it allows for detailed information gathering for infected people in a privacy-preserving fashion; and, in turn this enables both contact tracing, and, the early detection of outbreak hotspots on more finely-granulated geographic scale. The decentralized approach is also scalable to large populations, in that only the data of positive patients need be handled at a central level. Our recommendation is two-fold. First to extend existing decentralized architectures with a light touch, in order to manage the collection of location data locally on the device, and allow the user to share spatio-temporal aggregates-if and when they want and for specific aims-with health authorities, for instance. Second, we favour a longer-term pursuit of realizing a Personal Data Store vision, giving users the opportunity to contribute to collective good in the measure they want, enhancing self-awareness, and cultivating collective efforts for rebuilding society.